Interpretation Of Today'S Cotton Futures Market

< p > < strong > [Hongyuan futures]5 contract rise interval is limited < /strong > /p >

< p > key points < /p >

< p > 1. Price Bulletin: domestic lint: 129 level 20784 yuan / ton; 229 class 19909 yuan / ton; 328 level 19079 yuan / ton; 428 grade 18429 yuan / ton.

Domestic a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" target= "_blank" > textile < /a > Product: polyester staple fiber 10650 yuan / ton; viscose staple fiber 13710 yuan / ton; C32S price is 25715 yuan / ton.

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< p > 2. domestic stock: on the 14 day, the domestic cotton spot market price continued to strengthen.

At present, the prices of cotton, spinning and weaving in Southeast Asia and Central Asia are low, and labor costs are low, attracting the European and American textile < a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/" target= "_blank" > clothing < /a > procurement pfer, but the high and low grade of our cotton yarn is seriously differentiated, the price of local high-grade yarn is ascending, the price of the combed yarn is steady and low, the paction is still dull and depressed, the situation of yarn supply exceeds demand is difficult to change, and the downstream opening rate is low.

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< p > 3. imported cotton: near the end of the year, the market is increasingly concerned about the regulation and control policy of China's cotton market. The huge reserves are expected to strengthen the dumping and storage. At the same time, 894 thousand tons of quotas are in sight.

It is understood that the current procurement of textile mills is still cautious, on the one hand is ordering spot shipment and will be 40% customs tariff clearance of low grade cotton, on the other hand is to digest the tariff quotas scheduled for next year's shipment of cotton.

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< p > 4. seed cotton purchase: in the past week (7-13 December), the supply of high quality seed cotton in main producing areas of China has been decreasing, and the price of cotton seed has been raised. Most cotton seed purchase prices have rebounded within a small range, generally around 0.02 yuan / kg, and cotton enterprises have increased the purchase volume, and cotton farmers have also made more positive sales.

As the new year approaches, it is expected that the sales progress will further accelerate.

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< p > 5.ICE cotton: in December 14th, the QE4 plan to stimulate the US dollar index continued to fall, and the commodity market generally rose. Influenced by the positive effects of the peripheral market, the ICE cotton gained 53 points under the impetus of buying, which basically recovered the previous day's decline, but the market volume was still insufficient.

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< p > summary: < /p >

< p > ZHENG cotton's January contract is "soft forcing", and the atmosphere has a positive effect on other month contracts.

Zheng cotton in May, the market demand for storage after the forecast is still weak, and when the price of cotton is higher than the circulation of cotton prices, cotton buying enterprises do not have the power to choose futures purchase channel, which determines that futures prices have lost the buying power from spot enterprises, and the rising space is limited.

We believe that there is a great possibility of keeping the contract in order in May, and suggest interval operation.

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< p > < strong > [one German futures] base keeps low. Zheng cotton continues to rebound < /strong > /p >

< p > on Friday, CF1305 opened up and left high, and CF1305 closed more than 7.6 hands at the close.

CF1305 closed at 19230 yuan / ton, up 45 yuan / ton, increased 710 positions; in December 14th, China's imported cotton (FC Index M) 85.83 cents / pound, fell 0.29 cents / pound, 1% yuan tariff reduced price 13786 yuan / ton, sliding price conversion price 14673 yuan / ton.

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< p > according to the news of New York in December 14th, the price of cotton futures rose slightly on Friday, and a small number of technical purchases kept the cotton on top of the key supporting positions. The cotton in this cycle rose for third consecutive weeks.

The main ICE of the Intercontinental Exchange (March) increased by 0.53 cents or 0.71%, at 75.09 cents a pound.

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< p > December 14th, the cotton trading market in the national cotton trading market reached 10120 tons, 820 tons less than the previous trading day, the order quantity reduced by 260 tons, and the total order 32580 tons.

On the 14 day, the contracts were opened up, with a narrow range within the day.

On the basic level, spot prices are still on a small step, and downstream consumption and exports are no improvement. Some enterprises plan to continue to reduce their positions, limit production and advance the Spring Festival holiday in 2013.

On the macroeconomic front, the US financial cliff negotiations are still divided. Although the recent economic data is optimistic, there is still a possibility of falling into recession.

The main EU member states have not been able to agree on the solution to the debt crisis.

While the domestic economy has improved, it is limited.

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< p > > a href= "//www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_s.asp" > ZHENG cotton < /a > low opening high walk, rebounded slightly within the day, the current fundamentals are still conducive to the contract closing in recent months, with the acquisition of storage, high-grade lint is becoming scarce. The whole position of Zheng cotton stands, all the air continues to leave, the short-term direction of the probability is running along with the previous rebound trend, the overall bottom of zhengmian is still solid, and today the material rebounded again, but the space on the top of the A is also limited.

Today's operation suggests that the target price is more than 19300, with a target price of 19180 and a CF1305 reference price range of 19100-19400.

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< p > < strong > [MEIKO futures] the planting area is expected to be reduced next year. Zheng cotton is concerned about the upper limit pressure < /strong > /p >

< p > overnight market, the 14 day QE4 plan to stimulate the US dollar index continued to decline, the commodity market generally rose, and by the positive effects of the peripheral market, ICE cotton rose 53 points under the promotion of buying, basically recovered the day before yesterday's decline, but the market volume is still insufficient.

At present, adequate supply of global resources and concerns about downstream demand will be adverse to cotton price trend, but cotton prices will still rise. The main reason is that the planting area of global cotton exporters will be reduced.

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P > international market. On the 14 day, the quoted price of imported cotton in China was generally weak, and the price of most of the varieties was down 0.5 cents.

Near the end of the year, the market is increasingly concerned about the regulation and control policy of China's cotton market. The huge reserves are expected to strengthen the dumping and storage. At the same time, 894 thousand tons of quotas are in sight.

It is understood that the current procurement of textile mills is still cautious, on the one hand is ordering spot shipment and will be 40% customs clearance of low grade cotton, on the other hand is to digest the tariff quotas scheduled for next year's shipment of cotton.

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< p > domestic market, 14 days, domestic cotton spot market price continues to strengthen.

At present, the prices of cotton, spinning and weaving in Southeast Asia and Central Asia are low, labor and other aspects are low cost, attracting the purchase and pfer of textile and apparel in Europe and America, and the high and low grade of cotton yarn is seriously differentiated, the price of local high-grade yarn is ascending, the price of combed yarn is stable and low, the paction is still depressed, the situation of yarn supply exceeds demand is difficult to change, and the rate of downstream start-up is low.

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< p > National Reserve dynamics. In December 14th, the State Cotton temporary storage and storage business reached 281340 tons. As of that date, 2012 cotton temporary storage and storage pactions totaled 4305410 tons in 2012, including 1356360 tons in the mainland, 2095920 tons in Xinjiang, and 853130 tons in key enterprises.

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December 14th, the United States C/A cotton 90.60 (cents / pound), the discount port price 15188 yuan / ton (according to the sliding tax), the United States E/MOT cotton 88.40, discount port RMB port delivery price 14916 yuan / ton; Australia cotton 95.60, discount port RMB delivery price 15832 yuan / ton; Uzbekistan cotton 93.10, discount port RMB delivery price 15505 yuan / ton; West Africa cotton 85.85, discount port RMB port delivery price 14608 yuan / ton; India cotton 85.10, folded port RMB port delivery price of 85.10 yuan / ton.

CNCotton A 19917 yuan / ton, up 8 yuan; CNCotton B 19088 yuan, up 9 yuan.

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< p > market analysis, traders actively sell spot and pre-sale cotton in the near future, but due to the rumors of dumping and storage, the paction is still not ideal.

The total paction volume has reached over 4 million tons, raising the spot price slightly upward.

US cotton is expected to continue to rise after adjustment, and 05 will maintain a range of shocks and pressures of 19280.

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< p > operation, pay attention to 19280 pressure performance.

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< p > < strong > [Wanda futures] the rise of the peripheral market has led the US cotton rebounding < /strong > /p >

On Friday, the US dollar depreciated, while the strength of the peripheral commodities made good for ICE cotton. In March, the contract closed up 0.53 cents to 75.09 cents / pound, and stood firm 74 cents / pound, and the rally continued unchanged.

According to the CFTC position report released on Friday, as of the 11 week, the fund continued to turn flat and the index fund also showed signs of increasing holdings. However, the market did not show any signs of inflow of funds. Therefore, it is advisable to treat the recent rebound cautiously. After the Christmas and new year's long holidays, the ICE cotton will continue to climb under the multiple favorable factors. The March contract will challenge the 78 cent / pound pressure level.

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< p > Friday ICE cotton Xiao Yang reported, the main contract in March stabilized short term average and 74 cents / pound, the medium and short term average line system continued to rise in a row, KD and MACD indicators in the strong region continued to rise in a row, MACD index red column continues to grow, the rebound will continue, March contract is expected to challenge 78 cents / pound pressure level.

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< p > as of December 14th, China's "a href=" //www.sjfzxm.com/news/index_q.asp "storage" /a > 4 million 300 thousand tons, while a large number of domestic cotton is still waiting for storage, which results in tight domestic cotton spot resources, serious shortage of Zheng cotton warehouse receipts, and speculative capital speculation, the tension of warehouse receipts has become the main driving force for Zheng cotton's rise.

But with the coming of the Spring Festival, the price of cotton yarn and grey cloth in the lower reaches is showing signs of weakness, and the price of cotton is very high. In November, China Imported 300 thousand tons of cotton. In December, the new cotton in the United States and India will continue to arrive in Hong Kong. China will issue import quotas for 2013. The supply of imported cotton will make up for the gap formed by the purchase and storage. Spot cotton prices will maintain a weak pattern in the case of increased supply and shrinking consumption, and will pressure the forward contracts.

Speculation on speculative capital is not enough to raise the shortage of warehouse receipts.

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