The Sale Of China's Cotton Reserves May Have An Impact On Cotton Imports And Inventory.

international

The May global demand and demand forecast released by the Advisory Committee (ICAC) considers that the sale of China's cotton reserves may give cotton imports and

Bring about influence.

In 2016/2017, the global cotton planting area is estimated at 31 million 400 thousand hectares, an increase of 1% over the same period. The average yield per unit area is expected to increase by 4%, to 48.8 kg / mu, and cotton production is expected to grow at 22 million tons, an increase of 4%.

Global cotton consumption is expected to be 23 million 700 thousand tons. As China's economic growth slows down, cotton consumption in China is expected to continue to decline by 5%, to 6 million 800 thousand tons, and consumption in India and Pakistan is expected to be 5 million 500 thousand tons and 2 million 200 thousand tons, up 4% and 1% respectively over the same period last year.

Owing to the tight supply of cotton in India and the massive purchase and storage of the India government last year, India's cotton price is strong. The cotton planting area in India is expected to grow by 4%, to 12 million 400 thousand hectares, and the output is expected to increase by 10% to 6 million 500 thousand tons.

Because of the implementation of the cotton policy, China's cotton prices remain strong, but the increase in production costs makes cotton competitiveness decline, and cotton planting area is expected to decrease by 10%, to 3 million 100 thousand hectares. If output per unit is flat, cotton production is expected to decline by 10% to 4 million 600 thousand tons.

The competitiveness of cotton in the United States has increased, cotton planting area is expected to grow by 12%, to 3 million 300 thousand hectares, and the average yield per unit area is expected to increase by 9% to 3 million 100 thousand tons.

Pakistan's domestic cotton prices are strong, the cotton area is expected to expand to 2 million 900 thousand hectares, an increase of 3% over the same period, the average yield per unit area is expected to be 46.5 kg / mu, and the output is expected to reach 2 million tons, up 35% over the same period last year.

This year, the global cotton import volume is expected to be reduced by 3% to 7 million 400 thousand tons, and China's cotton imports will be reduced by 40% to 1 million 100 thousand tons. The cotton imports of Vietnam and Bangladesh will continue to grow with the continuous increase of consumption. Vietnam's cotton imports will be 1 million 100 thousand tons, the same growth rate is 17%, 1 million 100 thousand tons, and Bangladesh's cotton imports are expected to grow 12% to 1 million 100 thousand tons.

As the import quota is only limited to 1% tariff quotas, and the cotton reserves will meet domestic demand, China's cotton imports will be reduced by 13% to 9 million 400 thousand tons, but the strong growth in Vietnam's consumption may increase cotton imports by 25%, to 1 million 400 thousand tons, and Bangladesh's cotton imports to 1 million 200 thousand tons, an increase of 5%.

China's restrictions on cotton imports and the rotation of reserve cotton may reduce China's cotton inventories in 2015/2016 to 12 million tons, down 7% compared with the same period last year.

The situation remains stable. In 2016/2017, China's cotton stocks are expected to continue to decline by 10% to 10 million 900 thousand tons.

This year, cotton stocks outside China are expected to be 8 million 400 thousand tons, down 7% from the same period last year, but the 2016/2017 is expected to grow 2% to 8 million 700 thousand tons.